Title: Lake Victoria’s Nile perch on the brink of collapse.

Lake Victoria supports Uganda´s fisheries sector, with Nile perch (Lates niloticus) representing its most economically important species. However, its population has been under pressure, with some studies suggesting a decline and others arguing otherwise. This study investigates the current trends in Nile perch stock, forecasts future catches, and evaluates the implications of continued stock reduction. It also outlines the immediate and long-term strategies for sustainable species management. The study utilised simple linear regression to analyse stock trends, complemented by secondary data from key informant interviews. Regression analysis helped identify historical patterns and project future scenarios under the assumption of no significant management strategies. The results indicate a continuous decline in Nile perch stocks, suggesting a potential collapse by 2033 if current practices persist. The study concludes that overfishing is the primary driver of the decline and highlights the socio-economic consequences, including reduced contributions to GDP and job losses in the fishery sector. In response, this study recommends several key interventions, including reducing fishing effort, regulating the open-access nature of the fishery, aggressively tackling illegal fishing practices, and instituting closed seasons to allow for stock recovery. The interventions aim to rebuild Nile Perch populations in Lake Victoria, ensure long-term sustainability, and safeguard the economic, social, and biological value.