Title: Lake Victoria's Nile Perch on the Brink of Collapse

Ben Kiddu's final project will be published in due time. Until then we share the abstract and a link to a poster.

Uganda’s fisheries sector heavily relies on Lake Victoria, particularly on three major species: Dagaa/Mukene (Rastrineobola argentea), Nile perch (Lates niloticus), and Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). Among these, Nile perch holds the highest economic significance. However, its population has been under pressure, with some studies suggesting a decline, while others argue otherwise. This study investigates the current trends in Nile perch stock, forecasts future catches, and evaluates the implications of continued stock reduction. It also outlines immediate and long-term strategies for sustainable species management.

The study utilized simple linear regression to analyse stock trends, complemented by secondary data from key informant interviews. The regression analysis helped identify historical patterns and projected future scenarios under the assumption of no significant management strategies. The results indicated a continuous decline in Nile perch stocks, suggesting a potential collapse by 2033 if current practices persist.

The study concludes that overfishing is the primary driver of the decline and highlights socio-economic consequences, including reduced contributions to GDP and job losses in the fishery sector. In response, the paper recommends several key interventions, including reducing fishing effort, regulating the open-access nature of the fishery, aggressively tackling illegal fishing practices, and instituting closed seasons to allow for stock recovery. The interventions intend to rebuild the Nile Perch populations in Lake Victoria, ensure long-term sustainability, and safeguard their economic, social, and biological value.